The Latest Financial News

If you’re tracking mortgage rates while shopping for a home, today’s key inflation data didn’t make much of a splash. The PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, came in slightly higher than expected. Normally, that could push rates up, but there were some offsetting factors.

Income and spending both dropped more than expected, signaling potential weakness in the economy. That helped balance out concerns about inflation, keeping the bond market relatively calm. Rates improved a bit early this morning as bonds recovered from overnight weakness, but headlines about the Senate moving forward on a major spending bill later pushed bonds back down. Increased government spending can lead to more bond issuance, which often puts upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Overall, today’s inflation data wasn’t strong enough or weak enough to cause a big move in rates, leaving them close to where they’ve been this week.

If you’re following mortgage rates while shopping for a home, today brought a long list of economic reports that might seem like they’d shake things up. Durable Goods Orders, GDP updates, and more were all on the calendar—each of which can sometimes influence the bond market, and in turn, mortgage rates.

But despite the packed schedule, the market reaction has been muted. Trading volume the measure of how active the bond market is was lighter than expected this morning, especially compared to recent days that had fewer major reports. Why? The data sent mixed messages. Some figures suggested economic strength, which would typically push rates higher. Others pointed to a slowdown, which usually pulls rates lower. The result: a bit of a stalemate.

So far, mortgage rates remain relatively stable as the market waits for a more decisive signal in the days ahead.

If you’re house hunting, you may have noticed mortgage rates dipped recently to their best levels in over a month. Today, however, markets are taking a bit of a breather. After a solid rally in bond markets that helped pull rates lower, there’s been some light selling this morning, which could put slight upward pressure on rates though nothing dramatic.

There’s not much on today’s economic calendar to move the needle in a big way. Fed Chair Powell continues his congressional testimony, but the second day rarely brings surprises. New Home Sales data also came out, but that report typically doesn’t cause much of a market reaction. The one event to watch is this afternoon’s Treasury auction. If demand is unusually strong or weak, it could cause some movement in bond markets and in turn, mortgage rates.

Overall, today’s modest shift doesn’t erase the recent improvement, and rates are still near some of the best levels we’ve seen in several weeks.

If you’re planning to buy a home, there’s some encouraging news from Washington that could impact mortgage rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke before Congress today, and his comments gave financial markets more confidence that rate cuts could be on the horizon, possibly as soon as July.

While Powell didn’t commit to any immediate moves, his tone was noticeably softer than in previous appearances. He acknowledged that upcoming economic data, particularly related to inflation and tariffs, will play a key role in shaping the Fed’s decisions. If inflation pressures cool off and tariffs don’t push prices higher in June, Powell signaled that the Fed could consider easing up on current policy.

For homebuyers, this matters because when financial markets believe the Fed is more likely to ease, demand for bonds tends to increase. That pushes bond prices higher and yields (which mortgage rates often follow) lower. As a result, mortgage rates improved slightly today, continuing a rally that began earlier in the week.

If you’re shopping for a home, you may have heard that global tensions or conflict, like war can sometimes lead to lower mortgage rates. That’s because investors often seek safer places to put their money during uncertain times, and U.S. Treasuries are one of the safest options. When demand for Treasuries rises, their prices go up, and yields (which influence mortgage rates) go down.

But that pattern isn’t guaranteed. A perfect example is what happened with the Russia-Ukraine war. Rates initially dropped when the conflict began, but they quickly spiked as markets grew concerned about rising oil prices and broader inflation risks. That same concern came into play again this past weekend when tensions flared in the Middle East. Markets braced for a surge in oil prices which could drive inflation but oil barely moved, and bonds didn’t show much of a reaction.

Now that markets are open, bond prices are moving higher (and yields lower), but that’s likely driven more by calm around a possible radiation scare and some cautious, market-friendly comments from a Federal Reserve official, rather than the conflict itself.

For homebuyers, the key takeaway is this: global headlines can influence mortgage rates, but not always in predictable ways. It all depends on how markets view the long-term economic impact of the events not just the headlines themselves.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝
Here are the major economic events that could impact mortgage rates in the coming days:

𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭
This report measures how much consumers are spending. If shoppers are spending more than expected, it may signal a strong economy, which can push bond prices down and rates up. On the other hand, weak spending could lift bond prices and help rates move lower.

𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬
These numbers show how many new homes are being built. A big surge in home construction may point to economic strength, which can lead to higher rates. Slower construction could have the opposite effect and support lower rates.

𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐉𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐬
This weekly report shows how many people filed for unemployment. Higher-than-expected claims are a sign of a weakening job market and can help bond prices rise, potentially lowering mortgage rates. Fewer claims would suggest strength in the economy and may cause rates to climb.

𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 (𝐏𝐌𝐈)
These reports give insight into business activity. Strong readings suggest solid economic momentum, which often leads to lower bond prices and higher rates. Weak data may support a drop in rates.

Stay tuned, any surprises in these reports could influence the direction of mortgage rates in the days ahead.

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If you’re a homebuyer keeping an eye on mortgage rates, today’s Federal Reserve meeting might sound like a big deal but not for the reason you might expect. Despite all the headlines, there’s virtually no chance the Fed will announce a rate cut today. That’s been clear for over a month, mostly due to a stronger-than-expected jobs report back in April and a solid rebound in the stock market during May.

For the Fed to even consider lowering its benchmark rate, it would need to see two things: clear progress in lowering inflation and signs that the job market is weakening. While inflation may be showing some signs of cooling, the job market remains too strong for the Fed to change course.

Adding another wrinkle, recent trade policy headlines have raised questions about whether new tariffs could push inflation higher again. Even without that uncertainty, inflation has been bouncing around in 2024 and early 2025, with annualized figures climbing back above 3.5%. That’s not enough to justify rate cuts especially with job growth still looking solid.

So if there’s no rate cut on the table, why does today still matter for mortgage rates?

Because markets are paying close attention to the Fed’s updated economic projections (also known as the “dot plot”) and what Chair Powell says during the press conference. Any signals about how the Fed sees inflation and the economy evolving in the months ahead can influence bond prices and by extension, mortgage rates.

When the bond market sees signs that inflation may ease and the economy may slow down, bond prices usually rise and mortgage rates fall. On the other hand, if the Fed sounds confident in continued economic strength, bond prices may slip and rates could edge higher.