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If you’re planning to buy a home, you might expect that any report pointing to rising inflation would move mortgage rates. After all, inflation is one of the biggest drivers of interest rate changes. But today, the market didn’t seem to care much.

This morning’s Consumer Sentiment report showed that one-year inflation expectations just hit their highest level since 1981. That sounds like a big deal, and normally it would be. But traders believe this particular reading may be skewed by timing and headlines, so they didn’t react much.

Another report Import Prices also showed signs of price pressure, but it’s not a report that usually moves markets much, and today was no exception.

Despite those inflation signals, bond markets mostly held onto their gains from the overnight session, and mortgage rates remained relatively steady.

If you’re thinking about buying a home and trying to figure out where mortgage rates are headed next, you’re not alone and you’re not crazy for feeling a little confused.

Typically, mortgage rates move in a fairly predictable way based on key economic data like inflation, jobs, and consumer spending. But lately, there’s been a new wild card: global trade policy. Headlines about tariffs and trade talks—especially between the U.S. and China—have added a layer of unpredictability to the market.

Here’s the pattern we’ve seen recently: when trade tensions ease, investors feel more confident, stock prices go up, and bond prices fall. Since mortgage rates tend to move in the opposite direction of bond prices, that leads to higher rates. On the flip side, when there’s fear of more trade conflict, investors shift money into bonds, which can help push mortgage rates lower.

While traditional economic data like inflation reports still matter, markets seem less responsive to them until there’s more clarity on how trade policies will shake out and what that means for long-term economic growth.

Mortgage rates are being pulled in multiple directions right now. Until trade issues are more settled, expect to see some back-and-forth movement. If you’re house hunting, it’s a good time to stay informed and talk with your lender about rate locks and timing strategies.

If you’re in the market to buy a home, mortgage rates didn’t get much help today—even though inflation data came in right around expectations. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most closely watched inflation reports, showed prices are holding steady. That’s typically good news for mortgage rates, which tend to improve when inflation is under control.

But today’s numbers weren’t surprising enough to move the needle. Core inflation rose slightly on a monthly basis, but stayed flat year-over-year at 2.8%, matching forecasts. For a moment, bond markets responded positively, which could’ve meant slightly lower mortgage rates—but that reaction was short-lived.

What really moved the market was a surge in stocks after the opening bell, fueled by some upbeat headlines from China suggesting progress on trade issues. As investors poured money into the stock market, they pulled money out of bonds. When bond prices fall, yields—and by extension, mortgage rates—tend to rise.

For homebuyers:
Even though inflation stayed in check, the strong day for stocks pushed mortgage rates slightly higher. It’s a reminder that rates don’t move based on just one factor. Economic reports, global news, and investor sentiment all play a role.

If you’re planning to buy a home, this week started with important news that could impact mortgage rates. Over the weekend, the U.S. and China agreed to a 90-day pause on many of the tariffs that had been expected to go into effect soon. That temporary truce was a bigger deal than most investors had anticipated, and financial markets reacted immediately.

Bond yields—which heavily influence mortgage rates—jumped overnight to their highest levels in several weeks. Why? Because signs of improving global trade relations are typically seen as good news for the economy. And when the outlook for growth improves, investors tend to shift money out of safe-haven assets like bonds and into the stock market. As demand for bonds drops, their prices fall—and that pushes yields (and mortgage rates) higher.

What this means for homebuyers:
Mortgage rates edged up slightly on the news. While a trade truce sounds like a positive development, it actually reduces the chances of an economic slowdown in the near term. That, in turn, could make it harder for mortgage rates to move lower.

It’s worth noting that this is just a pause—not a resolution. There’s still a lot of uncertainty about where trade policy will ultimately land, and that means there’s still plenty of room for volatility in mortgage rates.

The Week Ahead: What Homebuyers Should Watch
Here are the major economic events coming up that could affect mortgage rates—and why they matter:

Tuesday, May 13 – Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• This is one of the most important inflation reports in the U.S.

• Why it matters: Higher inflation tends to push bond prices down and mortgage rates up. If inflation cools, it could help bring rates lower.

Wednesday, May 14 – Producer Price Index (PPI)

• Measures what businesses pay for goods and services before they reach consumers.

• Why it matters: If wholesale prices rise sharply, it could signal future inflation for consumers—potentially putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.

Thursday, May 15 – Weekly Jobless Claims & Housing Starts

• Tracks the number of people filing for unemployment and the number of new homes being built.

• Why it matters: Weak job numbers or a slowdown in home construction could suggest the economy is cooling—often good for bond prices and mortgage rates.

Friday, May 16 – Consumer Sentiment Report

• Offers insight into how optimistic people feel about the economy.

• Why it matters: Strong consumer confidence can lead to more spending and growth, which can push mortgage rates higher. A drop in sentiment may help rates fall.

If you’re in the market to buy a home, you may be wondering what could move mortgage rates next. While today’s calendar includes several scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve officials, the reality is that markets have already heard plenty from the Fed lately—including a key message from Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week. Unless someone says something truly unexpected, it’s unlikely these speeches will move the needle much on mortgage rates.

Instead, all eyes are on developments with U.S.–China trade talks expected over the weekend. The bond market—which mortgage rates closely follow—is particularly sensitive to global economic news like this.

Why? Because any shift in the tone of trade negotiations could change investors’ expectations for economic growth and inflation. For example, if tensions ease and tariffs are reduced, that could signal stronger global growth and rising prices, which tends to push bond prices down and mortgage rates up. On the other hand, if talks stall or tariffs rise, it could raise fears of an economic slowdown—possibly boosting bond prices and bringing mortgage rates down.

For now, the market is in “wait and see” mode, with different investors interpreting the potential impact in different ways. Until there’s a clear signal from either the Fed or the trade talks, mortgage rates are likely to stay within a narrow range.

If you’re planning to buy a home, today’s economic data gave mortgage rates a slight nudge—but not enough to change the overall picture in a big way. The bond market, which mortgage rates closely follow, started the day weaker and saw some brief swings after the latest jobless and labor cost numbers were released.

What Happened This Morning
At 8:30 AM ET, two key pieces of data were released:

• Jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected, suggesting the job market remains solid.
• Unit labor costs (a measure of how much businesses pay workers to produce goods and services) jumped to 5.7% in Q1, up from 2.0% in the previous quarter. This kind of increase can raise inflation concerns.

While the spike in labor costs initially pushed bond yields higher (which can lead to higher mortgage rates), the reaction didn’t last long. Bonds quickly rebounded, bringing yields down again—only to drift back to earlier levels later in the morning.

What This Means for Homebuyers
This type of back-and-forth movement is common when the market is unsure about what’s next. For now:

• Mortgage rates remain in a holding pattern.
• Stronger labor cost data could signal longer-term inflation pressure, which tends to keep mortgage rates elevated.
• However, today’s reaction shows that markets aren’t ready to overreact just yet.

The rest of the day is relatively quiet except for a scheduled 30-year bond auction and potential headlines around U.S.–U.K. trade deals, both of which could nudge rates slightly.

Bottom Line
If you’re in the process of buying a home, today’s data doesn’t drastically change the mortgage rate outlook. But the rise in labor costs is a reminder that inflation pressures aren’t gone, and that could limit how much rates can improve in the near term.