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Thursday brought a busy round of economic reports, including jobless claims, layoffs, ADP employment data, and the ISM Services Index. Normally, this type of data can move the bond market, which directly affects mortgage rates. But despite the flurry of headlines, the reaction has been muted.

Here’s what stood out:

ADP Employment Report came in slightly weaker than expected, suggesting job growth may be slowing a bit. However, it wasn’t weak enough to spark a strong rally in bonds (which would help rates move lower).
ISM Services Report looked stronger at first glance, but digging deeper, the details weren’t as impressive. Employment numbers inside the report were softer, and prices ticked down slightly both of which suggest the economy isn’t running too hot.

The result? Mortgage rates are basically holding steady. Bonds had already improved overnight, and this morning’s data wasn’t strong enough to erase those gains—but not weak enough to send rates lower either.

What this means for homebuyers: Mortgage rates are staying in a relatively stable range for now. The bigger story is Friday’s jobs report, which could provide the clearer signal the market is waiting for. Strong job growth could push rates higher, while signs of weakness in the labor market may help bring them down.

The first trading day after Labor Day often brings extra market swings, and this year was no exception. Bonds, which heavily influence mortgage rates, started the morning weaker after last week’s month-end trading had given them a temporary boost. In other words, some of today’s movement may simply be the market “resetting” after the holiday.

Adding to the mix, inflation data out of Europe came in hotter than expected, pushing bond yields in some European countries to multi-decade highs. U.S. markets felt some of that ripple effect early in the day. There was also buzz around a lower court ruling on tariffs that, if it eventually sticks, could mean the government would need to issue more debt—something that usually puts upward pressure on rates. That said, it’s too early to know if this will become a real issue, so for now, it’s just background noise.

On the brighter side, weaker U.S. manufacturing data provided some relief, helping U.S. bond markets recover a portion of their overnight losses. By the afternoon, the damage to mortgage rates was limited, though they did tick slightly higher compared to last week’s levels.

What this means for homebuyers: Mortgage rates may drift a little higher in the short term as markets adjust after the holiday and digest international news. Still, the bigger drivers for rates remain upcoming U.S. inflation and jobs reports, which will give a clearer signal of where rates may head next.

When it comes to tracking inflation, the key factor driving mortgage rates, there are two main reports in the U.S.: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. The PCE is the one policymakers tend to pay closer attention to because it’s more comprehensive.

The catch is that the PCE report comes out about two weeks after CPI, covering the same month of data. That makes it less likely to deliver surprises, since most of the numbers can already be guessed from earlier reports.

Today’s PCE numbers came in exactly as expected, with both monthly and annual inflation lining up perfectly with forecasts. Because there were no surprises, the bond market stayed calm, and mortgage rates didn’t move much from where they started the day.

What this means for homebuyers: With inflation holding steady and no unexpected shifts in today’s report, mortgage rates remain fairly stable. The next meaningful movement in rates will likely come from fresh economic data that paints a clearer picture of where prices and the economy are headed.

Today’s economic calendar looked busy at first glance, but most of the reports carried little weight when it comes to moving the markets or mortgage rates.

The biggest item was the update to second-quarter GDP (the measure of overall economic growth), but this was just a revision to numbers that were already released. That makes it less important, since markets already had this information weeks ago. For example, the inflation data included in today’s report only covers April through June, while tomorrow’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report will give fresh inflation numbers for July, which matters much more to investors and the Fed.

Jobless Claims, another regular report, also didn’t pack much of a punch today. While the number of people continuing to claim unemployment benefits ticked up a little, it wasn’t a big enough change to signal a meaningful shift in the job market.

What this means for homebuyers: With today’s reports being mostly “old news,” mortgage rates held fairly steady. Tomorrow’s inflation report will be more important and could bring more movement depending on whether inflation looks hotter or cooler than expected.

Today is shaping up to be a quiet one for the markets, with no major economic reports or big announcements scheduled. That means mortgage rates aren’t likely to see much movement driven by new data.

The one event worth noting is a Treasury auction this afternoon, where the government will sell 5-year Treasury notes. These auctions can sometimes affect the bond market which in turn influences mortgage rates—but the impact is often small or even nonexistent. On rare occasions, auctions can spark noticeable moves, but that’s not the norm.

Outside of the bond market, NVIDIA (NVDA) is reporting earnings later today. Because it’s a large and influential stock, the results could cause some swings in the broader stock market. However, company earnings reports usually don’t have a meaningful effect on bonds or mortgage rates. The exception is when companies issue large amounts of corporate debt alongside earnings, but that’s not expected in this case.

What this means for homebuyers: With little on the calendar today, mortgage rates are likely to hold steady unless the Treasury auction surprises investors. Bigger influences on rates will come from the larger economic reports still to come this week.

The bond market is starting the day quietly, with little movement compared to yesterday. For now, mortgage rates are holding steady, since this morning’s economic data didn’t make much of a difference.

Behind the scenes, however, there was some unexpected news overnight. Former President Trump announced the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook—a move that is not simple to carry out and could take time to fully unfold. Bonds reacted by shifting in a way that suggests investors believe her replacement may be more supportive of future rate cuts.

Here’s why that matters: shorter-term bonds (like 2-year Treasuries) are closely tied to expectations for Fed policy, while longer-term bonds (like 10-year Treasuries) have more influence on mortgage rates. The immediate reaction was a steeper difference between those two bond yields. While this isn’t a major shift for now, it highlights how political and policy developments can still ripple into the bond market—and eventually into mortgage rates.

For homebuyers, the takeaway is that rates are steady today, but the bigger picture could change as this situation develops. Mortgage rates are often most sensitive to broader economic data and trends, but events like this can add extra uncertainty into the mix.