The Latest Financial News

Mortgage rates didn’t move much today, even with a full slate of headlines and economic data. Early this morning, bond prices were a bit stronger, which generally helps keep rates down, but that reversed after a series of comments from former President Trump about upcoming trade deals and his thoughts on interest rates and the dollar. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders data came in much weaker than expected, but the bond market largely ignored it since this report doesn’t usually drive big changes.

In simple terms, despite today’s trade and economic news, bond prices remained in a narrow range, leading to little change in mortgage rates overall.

This morning’s jobless claims report showed fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, with the 4-week average now at its lowest level in 13 weeks. Even though this isn’t the most influential economic report, it’s one of the only meaningful pieces of data out this week. As a result, bond prices slipped a bit both before and after the report was released, causing mortgage rates to edge slightly higher today.

In simple terms, when the job market shows strength like this, it tends to boost confidence in the economy, which pushes bond prices down and causes mortgage rates to go up.

This week has been quiet in terms of major economic reports, so markets have been reacting to headlines instead. Overnight, news of a new trade deal with Japan boosted the stock market, which usually means bond prices drop. Because mortgage rates are tied to bond yields, this caused rates to tick up slightly.

As trading in the U.S. began today, there was a bit more selling in bonds, but not enough to push mortgage rates significantly higher. Overall, rates remain within the same general range as earlier this week, but this is a reminder that strong global economic news often puts upward pressure on rates here at home.

This morning brought some good news for mortgage rates. While the stock market has been a bit volatile, something common during earnings season that volatility has actually helped the bond market so far this week. Because mortgage rates are tied to bond yields, this is a positive development.

Earlier today, bonds started moving into better territory after comments from Bessent, a key market figure, regarding trade negotiations and Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Bessent mentioned there’s no need to replace Powell right now, which echoed a similar report over the weekend. This reassurance has helped calm the markets.

Overall, these factors are helping bond prices rise, which results in lower yields and slightly lower mortgage rates for buyers this week.

This week, much like a couple of weeks ago, has very few major economic events scheduled. The Federal Reserve is in its “blackout period,” meaning officials won’t be giving any speeches about monetary policy until after their next announcement. While Thursday’s S&P PMI report and the weekly Jobless Claims could move markets if results are far off expectations, they usually don’t cause big swings.

Even with this calm backdrop, both stocks and bonds are off to a strong start today. For mortgage rates, this means a slightly more positive outlook to begin the week. Much of this improvement is driven by technical market factors rather than new economic news – for example, bond yields found strong support around 4.5% last week, and traders are also watching the 100-day moving average as a guide.

The Week Ahead
Here are the key economic reports and events coming up in the next seven days that could affect mortgage rates:

Thursday – S&P PMI (Purchasing Managers Index)
This report measures the health of the manufacturing and services sectors. If the report shows stronger business growth than expected, it often pushes bond prices down and mortgage rates up, as it signals a stronger economy. If the report is weaker than expected, bond prices usually rise and rates fall.

Weekly Jobless Claims
This tracks the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. If claims are much lower than expected, it suggests the job market is strong, which tends to lower bond prices and push rates higher. If claims are higher than expected, it indicates some weakness in the job market, which often results in bond prices rising and mortgage rates decreasing.

Overall, with few major reports this week, mortgage rates are likely to remain steady unless there is unexpected news that shifts the outlook for the economy.

After a week filled with major economic reports and unexpected news that shook up markets, today feels like a welcome pause. Friday’s economic calendar only included Consumer Sentiment and residential construction data, neither of which tend to move markets significantly. Because of this, and with bonds trading slightly stronger overnight, mortgage rates are holding steady today. If the market closed right now, rates would end the week about where they started, giving homebuyers a calm finish after a busy few days.

Bottom Line
No big changes for rates today is good news if you’re planning to lock in your mortgage soon. Enjoy the quiet, and stay tuned for more impactful economic updates next week that could influence rate movements.