Today's Mortgage Interest Rate News

Today is unusually calm for the bond market, and that’s largely due to a partial government shutdown. Even if funding is approved quickly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has already confirmed it will not release two of this week’s most important reports: today’s job openings data and Friday’s monthly jobs report.

This isn’t unusual during shutdowns or short data-collection months. In fact, it’s fairly common for major labor reports to be delayed when there aren’t enough working days to properly gather the information.

For homebuyers watching mortgage rates, the lack of fresh data means there’s nothing new pushing bonds in either direction. Bond prices tend to move the most when major economic reports show clear strength or weakness, and right now, those signals are simply missing.

There are still a few secondary reports coming up, like private payroll data and a manufacturing survey, but these usually play a supporting role. Until the bigger, more influential data returns, mortgage rates are likely to drift rather than make any decisive move.

This morning’s manufacturing data came in much stronger than expected, and that’s catching the bond market’s attention. Last week’s Chicago PMI hinted at this possibility when it jumped to its second-highest level since 2022. At the time, many brushed it off as a fluke because that report can be choppy from month to month. Today’s numbers suggest it was an early warning.

The national ISM Manufacturing report surged to its highest level since 2022, with both overall activity and new orders showing solid strength. While manufacturing data usually has less influence than reports tied to jobs or services, this increase was large enough to matter.

For mortgage rates, the takeaway is fairly straightforward. Strong economic news like this tends to support the stock market and reduce demand for bonds. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and that upward pressure can show up in mortgage rates. That’s why bonds aren’t reacting favorably today, even though the news may sound positive for the broader economy.

At first glance, this morning’s inflation data looks like it should have rattled the bond market. The Producer Price Index, or PPI, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, came in much hotter than expected. Core PPI rose 0.7% versus a 0.2% forecast and a flat reading previously. If a similar surprise had shown up in the more well-known Consumer Price Index, or CPI, mortgage rates would likely be moving noticeably higher today.

So why hasn’t that happened?

The key reason is that PPI tends to be much more volatile than CPI. Big month-to-month swings are more common, which makes investors less likely to react aggressively to a single outlier reading. In other words, markets are more cautious about treating PPI surprises as a lasting signal.

More importantly for mortgage rates, the bond market focuses less on the headline PPI number and more on how certain PPI components feed into consumer inflation measures that matter most for bonds. When investors looked under the hood at those specific categories, they did not show the same level of inflation pressure suggested by the overall PPI data.

Because of that, bond prices have remained relatively steady. When bond prices hold up, yields, including mortgage rates, do not move sharply higher. For homebuyers, this means that despite eye-catching inflation headlines, the data did not deliver a clear reason for rates to worsen today.

This morning’s economic data showed fewer people continuing to file for unemployment benefits, the lowest level since October 2024. On the surface, that kind of news often points to a healthier job market, which can put pressure on bonds. When bonds are sold, their prices fall and yields, including mortgage rates, move higher.

What’s interesting, though, is the timing. Bonds did not start selling off right after the data was released. The more noticeable weakness showed up much later, suggesting that something beyond the jobs numbers may be influencing the market.

One possible factor is rising commodity prices, which have been moving higher at the same time bonds have been moving lower. That does not necessarily mean investors are selling bonds to buy commodities, but it does hint that broader inflation-related concerns could be back in focus. When inflation worries resurface, bond prices tend to struggle, and rates can drift higher.

Zooming out, the overall move has been fairly modest. Mortgage rate conditions are not changing dramatically today. Instead, this looks like another example of the bond market failing to move back into a lower, more favorable range. For homebuyers, that means rates are still facing resistance to improving, even if today’s economic data alone does not fully explain the move.

This Wednesday brings the first Federal Reserve announcement of 2026, but for homebuyers, it is shaping up to be a relatively low-drama event. This meeting does not include updated economic forecasts or the well-known “dot plot,” which usually gives markets clearer clues about where interest rates could be headed. Without those updates, these meetings tend to have less influence on mortgage rates.

That said, Fed meetings can still matter if the Chair’s comments shift expectations. The last time that happened in a meaningful way was late October, when remarks signaled that inflation and a still-strong job market could slow progress toward lower rates. Since then, the bond market has largely adjusted to that reality, accepting that solid employment and lingering inflation make it harder for rates to move steadily lower.

Right now, investors still believe there is a reasonable chance that borrowing conditions improve later this year, possibly by early summer. What markets will be listening for on Wednesday is any clarification about what needs to change in the economy before bond prices can rise in a more durable way.

Going into the meeting, bonds are slightly weaker, meaning prices are a bit lower and yields are a bit higher. This suggests that recent attempts for rates to move back into a lower, more comfortable range have stalled. For homebuyers, that means this week’s Fed meeting is unlikely to bring immediate relief for mortgage rates, but any hints about future economic progress could still shape the direction in the months ahead.

From a homebuyer’s perspective, the bond market can sometimes move for technical reasons rather than fresh economic news. This is one of those moments.

Recently, bond yields moved above an important ceiling around 4.20 percent on the 10-year Treasury. When that happens, it often leaves what traders call a “gap,” meaning prices moved quickly without much trading in between. Over time, markets tend to drift back and “fill” that gap as buying and selling balance out.

That is essentially what just happened. Yields moved back down close to that 4.20 level, suggesting the gap has been filled and the market has worked through that imbalance.

Why does this matter for mortgage rates? Once these gaps are filled, investors sometimes feel more comfortable stepping away from bonds again. When bonds are sold, their prices fall and yields, or rates, move higher. That does not guarantee rates will rise immediately, but it does reduce one source of recent support for lower rates.

For buyers, this means the recent pullback in rates may be losing momentum unless new economic data or events encourage investors to move money back into bonds. In the short term, rates could be more vulnerable to drifting higher if stronger economic news appears.