Today's Mortgage Interest Rate News

Today is shaping up to be the quietest trading day of the week, with very little economic data scheduled. The only report on the calendar is Consumer Sentiment, which rarely causes meaningful movement in the bond market. As a result, bonds are starting the day almost unchanged.

In practical terms, that means mortgage rate pressure is fairly stable for now. Treasury yields are only slightly higher than yesterday’s late-afternoon levels, but still sitting in the same general range traders have been watching.

The bigger story is what isn’t happening today. Yesterday brought several labor market reports that hinted at a bit of cooling beneath the surface. That caught investors’ attention and shifted focus to next week’s major jobs report, which has a much stronger track record of moving bonds and mortgage rates.

For homebuyers, this creates a temporary waiting period. When markets are unsure, bond prices tend to trade sideways. If next week’s jobs data suggests a slowing economy, bond prices could rise, which typically leads to lower yields and friendlier mortgage rates. If the data points to continued strength, bond prices could fall, pushing yields and rates higher.

Until that clearer signal arrives, the bond market appears content to stay in its current range, leaving mortgage rates relatively steady in the short term.

The bond market is off to a better start this morning, helped in part by fresh signals from the labor market. While bonds were already slightly improved overnight, prices moved higher more noticeably after early-morning employment data was released.

The most important boost came from the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET. That data suggested a bit less momentum in the job market, which tends to support bond prices. When bond prices rise, yields and mortgage rates generally move lower. An earlier report on announced job cuts also drew some attention, but it appears most of the positive momentum was already in place before that data was released.

There is still one labor report left this morning that could matter more for rates. The job openings report due at 10 a.m. ET has the potential to influence markets because it offers a broader look at demand for workers. A softer reading could help bonds hold onto their gains, while a stronger result could pull bond prices back and put upward pressure on mortgage rates.

The bond market has had a slow start today, even with a few notable updates on the calendar. Early this morning, a private-sector jobs report came in a bit weaker than expected, but it didn’t spark much reaction. That tells us investors didn’t see it as strong enough to change the bigger picture for the economy or mortgage rates.

Shortly after, the U.S. Treasury released its latest borrowing outlook. While there were no surprises for the current quarter, officials reminded markets that more bonds will likely need to be issued in future years. When more bonds are expected to come to market, prices can come under pressure, which tends to push yields, and mortgage rates, higher. That reminder may explain the mild selling seen earlier this morning.

For now, the most important event of the day is still ahead. The services-sector report due later this morning is often a stronger driver of bond prices because it reflects activity in the largest part of the U.S. economy. If it shows strength, bond prices could dip and rates could edge higher. If it comes in weaker, bonds could benefit, helping keep mortgage rates more contained.

Today is unusually calm for the bond market, and that’s largely due to a partial government shutdown. Even if funding is approved quickly, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has already confirmed it will not release two of this week’s most important reports: today’s job openings data and Friday’s monthly jobs report.

This isn’t unusual during shutdowns or short data-collection months. In fact, it’s fairly common for major labor reports to be delayed when there aren’t enough working days to properly gather the information.

For homebuyers watching mortgage rates, the lack of fresh data means there’s nothing new pushing bonds in either direction. Bond prices tend to move the most when major economic reports show clear strength or weakness, and right now, those signals are simply missing.

There are still a few secondary reports coming up, like private payroll data and a manufacturing survey, but these usually play a supporting role. Until the bigger, more influential data returns, mortgage rates are likely to drift rather than make any decisive move.

This morning’s manufacturing data came in much stronger than expected, and that’s catching the bond market’s attention. Last week’s Chicago PMI hinted at this possibility when it jumped to its second-highest level since 2022. At the time, many brushed it off as a fluke because that report can be choppy from month to month. Today’s numbers suggest it was an early warning.

The national ISM Manufacturing report surged to its highest level since 2022, with both overall activity and new orders showing solid strength. While manufacturing data usually has less influence than reports tied to jobs or services, this increase was large enough to matter.

For mortgage rates, the takeaway is fairly straightforward. Strong economic news like this tends to support the stock market and reduce demand for bonds. When bond prices fall, yields rise, and that upward pressure can show up in mortgage rates. That’s why bonds aren’t reacting favorably today, even though the news may sound positive for the broader economy.

At first glance, this morning’s inflation data looks like it should have rattled the bond market. The Producer Price Index, or PPI, which measures inflation at the wholesale level, came in much hotter than expected. Core PPI rose 0.7% versus a 0.2% forecast and a flat reading previously. If a similar surprise had shown up in the more well-known Consumer Price Index, or CPI, mortgage rates would likely be moving noticeably higher today.

So why hasn’t that happened?

The key reason is that PPI tends to be much more volatile than CPI. Big month-to-month swings are more common, which makes investors less likely to react aggressively to a single outlier reading. In other words, markets are more cautious about treating PPI surprises as a lasting signal.

More importantly for mortgage rates, the bond market focuses less on the headline PPI number and more on how certain PPI components feed into consumer inflation measures that matter most for bonds. When investors looked under the hood at those specific categories, they did not show the same level of inflation pressure suggested by the overall PPI data.

Because of that, bond prices have remained relatively steady. When bond prices hold up, yields, including mortgage rates, do not move sharply higher. For homebuyers, this means that despite eye-catching inflation headlines, the data did not deliver a clear reason for rates to worsen today.