The Latest Financial News

If you’re shopping for a home, you may have heard that global tensions or conflict, like war can sometimes lead to lower mortgage rates. That’s because investors often seek safer places to put their money during uncertain times, and U.S. Treasuries are one of the safest options. When demand for Treasuries rises, their prices go up, and yields (which influence mortgage rates) go down.

But that pattern isn’t guaranteed. A perfect example is what happened with the Russia-Ukraine war. Rates initially dropped when the conflict began, but they quickly spiked as markets grew concerned about rising oil prices and broader inflation risks. That same concern came into play again this past weekend when tensions flared in the Middle East. Markets braced for a surge in oil prices which could drive inflation but oil barely moved, and bonds didn’t show much of a reaction.

Now that markets are open, bond prices are moving higher (and yields lower), but that’s likely driven more by calm around a possible radiation scare and some cautious, market-friendly comments from a Federal Reserve official, rather than the conflict itself.

For homebuyers, the key takeaway is this: global headlines can influence mortgage rates, but not always in predictable ways. It all depends on how markets view the long-term economic impact of the events not just the headlines themselves.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐀𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝
Here are the major economic events that could impact mortgage rates in the coming days:

𝐓𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐑𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭
This report measures how much consumers are spending. If shoppers are spending more than expected, it may signal a strong economy, which can push bond prices down and rates up. On the other hand, weak spending could lift bond prices and help rates move lower.

𝐖𝐞𝐝𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐭𝐬
These numbers show how many new homes are being built. A big surge in home construction may point to economic strength, which can lead to higher rates. Slower construction could have the opposite effect and support lower rates.

𝐓𝐡𝐮𝐫𝐬𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐉𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐦𝐬
This weekly report shows how many people filed for unemployment. Higher-than-expected claims are a sign of a weakening job market and can help bond prices rise, potentially lowering mortgage rates. Fewer claims would suggest strength in the economy and may cause rates to climb.

𝐅𝐫𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲: 𝐌𝐚𝐧𝐮𝐟𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐃𝐚𝐭𝐚 (𝐏𝐌𝐈)
These reports give insight into business activity. Strong readings suggest solid economic momentum, which often leads to lower bond prices and higher rates. Weak data may support a drop in rates.

Stay tuned, any surprises in these reports could influence the direction of mortgage rates in the days ahead.

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