Today's Mortgage Interest Rate News

Bond markets opened the day slightly weaker, and they continued to lose a bit more ground after two key economic reports were released this morning.

The first report, Jobless Claims, showed fewer people filing for unemployment benefits than economists expected. This suggests that the labor market remains strong. The second report, Durable Goods Orders, measures new orders for long-lasting manufactured products. Even though this data is older, it still showed solid business demand.

Stronger economic news tends to boost confidence in the stock market. When that happens, investors often move money out of bonds and into stocks. This pushes bond prices down and causes yields to rise, which is the opposite direction homebuyers would prefer.

Today’s bond movement is small, not dramatic. The 10-year Treasury yield is up just a little, and mortgage-backed securities dipped slightly. But even small changes can influence daily mortgage rate pricing.

For homebuyers, the bottom line is straightforward. Stronger economic reports can put upward pressure on yields. Since rising yields usually push mortgage rates higher, this type of data can make it a bit more expensive to borrow, at least temporarily.

This morning brought a couple of economic reports, but neither one had much influence on the bond market. ADP’s weekly employment update showed another drop in job numbers, and the delayed Retail Sales report came in weaker than expected. Under normal conditions, weak economic news can push bond prices higher and help bring rates down. Today, however, the market barely reacted.

This calm reaction is typical for Thanksgiving week, when lighter trading volume often leads to more muted market movement.

Even though the reports themselves did not move the market, bonds were already improving before the data was released. As a result, mortgage-backed securities started the day slightly stronger and the 10-year Treasury yield opened just above 4.0 percent.

For homebuyers, this slight improvement in bond prices is generally good news because rising bond prices push yields lower, which creates a more favorable environment for mortgage rates. While the changes are modest, they show that rates can still shift even when economic data is not the main driver.

Today is a quiet start to the week for financial markets. With no major economic reports scheduled and a shorter trading week due to the holiday, there was not much expected to move the bond market in a big way. Even so, bond yields improved slightly this morning.

Because yields were already sitting near the low end of their recent range on Friday, today’s small improvement pushed them to the lowest levels since the Federal Reserve meeting in late October. Lower bond yields often translate to better mortgage-rate conditions, so this is a positive sign for homebuyers.

While today was calm, the next two days bring several important economic reports. Holiday weeks can also create more unpredictable market movement, so rates may bounce around more than usual.

Looking at the bigger picture, the bond market is still waiting for key economic data that will be released in mid-December. Those reports will likely play an important role in determining whether yields can finally break out of the narrow range they have been stuck in for the past three months. For homebuyers, this means the most meaningful shifts in mortgage rates may still be ahead.

Week Ahead

Here are the key economic reports scheduled in the next seven days and how they could affect mortgage rates:

Event	What it measures	Potential effect on bond yields / mortgage rates
U.S. Census Bureau Monthly Retail Sales (Tuesday) – changes in what consumers are buying	Shows how strong household spending is	If retail sales are stronger than expected, stocks tend to get a boost, bond prices often fall (yields go up) — meaning mortgage rates could rise. If retail sales come in weak, bond prices may rise (yields fall) — possibly lowering mortgage rates. (Reuters)
Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday) – new orders for long-lasting manufactured goods	Reflects business demand and confidence	A strong surprise can push bond prices down (yields up → mortgage rates up). A weak number tends to push bond prices up (yields down → mortgage rates down) (Reuters)

 

The bond market opened the day with a modest boost, largely moving in step with stock market losses. This close connection between bonds and stocks is common, and today it worked in favor of slightly lower bond yields.

The strongest shift came after comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who suggested there is room for an interest rate cut in December. Williams is one of the Federal Reserve’s most influential voices, second only to Chair Jerome Powell, so investors tend to take his guidance seriously.

His remarks initially pushed bond yields lower, which is typically a positive sign for mortgage rates. However, the same comments also lifted stock prices. As stocks gained, the bond rally lost some of its momentum.

For homebuyers, the takeaway is simple. Any talk of future rate cuts from key Fed officials can help ease mortgage rates, but competing stock market reactions can limit how far those improvements go in the short term.

This morning’s jobs report created a lot of activity in the bond market, but not in a dramatic way. Trading volume spiked right after the numbers were released, showing that investors were paying close attention. However, the buying and selling ended up fairly balanced, which is why the overall reaction has been relatively calm.

The report itself sent mixed signals:

• Job growth was stronger than expected, with 119,000 new jobs added compared to the 50,000 economists predicted. Strong job growth can sometimes push bond prices down and cause mortgage rates to rise, because it signals a stronger economy.
• But at the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, which points to some cooling. We also saw a small downward revision to August’s numbers. These weaker elements generally support higher bond prices and lower rates.

Because the data pulled in both directions, the bond market is holding steady with slightly stronger pricing so far. For homebuyers, this means mortgage rates are not experiencing major swings this morning, and the market is waiting for clearer signals before making any big moves.

This morning the bond market is reacting closely to what’s happening in the stock market. While the relationship between the two isn’t always predictable, today we’re seeing a more traditional pattern: as stocks rise, bond prices fall, which causes bond yields and therefore mortgage rates to move higher.

This shift became especially noticeable right after the stock market opened at 9:30am Eastern Time. Investors have been moving money back into stocks, reducing the “safe haven” interest in bonds that boosted prices earlier in the week. When demand for bonds drops, prices tend to decline, and that pushes rates upward.

The next potential market mover arrives at 2pm Eastern, when the Federal Reserve releases the minutes from its latest meeting. These minutes provide insight into how Fed officials are thinking about the economy. If the minutes suggest they’re more concerned about inflation or think the economy is strong enough to handle less support, bond prices could fall and rates could rise. If the minutes show more concern about economic weakness, bond prices may climb and rates could ease.