Today's Mortgage Interest Rate News

Mortgage rates started the week on a stronger note after early morning bond buying helped erase overnight weakness. A key factor behind the improvement came from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, which showed Americans expect unemployment to rise and the job market to soften slightly in the months ahead.

Normally, this report doesn’t move markets much but with last week’s jobs data delayed due to the government shutdown, investors are paying closer attention to any sign of change in the labor market.

When economic data hints at a slowdown, investors tend to move money from stocks into safer assets like bonds. As bond prices rise, yields and mortgage rates often move lower.

Even though there were no major U.S. economic reports scheduled today, mortgage rates still saw movement and it didn’t come from anything happening here at home.

Global events overseas, particularly in Japan and Europe, caused bond markets in those regions to sell off. When that happens, U.S. bond markets often follow the trend, especially on quiet news days like this.

Think of it like this:

• When investors sell bonds, prices drop.
• When bond prices drop, yields — which help determine mortgage rates — go up.

Because there was no U.S. data to counteract the move, rates drifted slightly higher overnight simply from international influence.

For homebuyers, this is a reminder: Mortgage rates can react to global news — even when things seem quiet here in the U.S.

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📅 The Week Ahead: What Could Move Mortgage Rates

Date	Event	Why It Matters for Rates
Tuesday	Consumer Confidence Report	When consumers feel confident, they tend to spend more. A stronger economy often pulls investors away from bonds and into the stock market, which pushes bond prices down and mortgage rates up. If confidence drops, investors move back into bonds, pushing rates lower.
Wednesday	Job Openings (JOLTS Report)	A high number of job openings signals a strong labor market. Strong labor = stronger economy = lower demand for bonds → higher rates. Fewer openings suggest cooling momentum, which can lift bond prices and help rates fall.
Thursday	Weekly Jobless Claims	Fewer people filing for unemployment suggests economic strength, and that often sends investors toward stocks, pushing bond prices down and rates higher. More unemployment claims indicate softening conditions, which usually supports bonds and helps rates ease.
Friday	ISM Manufacturing Index	When factory activity is strong, markets assume businesses will spend more and hire more — that tends to reduce demand for bonds and push rates higher. If manufacturing weakens, investors typically seek safety in bonds, helping rates drift lower.

 

With the government shutdown pausing the monthly jobs report, today’s ISM Services report became the most important piece of economic news for the week. This report tracks the health of the services sector, which makes up most of the U.S. economy, and can have an impact on mortgage rates.

Here’s what the data showed:

• New orders dropped sharply, signaling some slowing in demand.
• Employment in the services sector ticked up a little, which markets tend to pay close attention to.
• Prices stayed elevated, showing ongoing inflation pressures.

Overall, the report was mixed. Bond markets had already weakened slightly before the data, and the release didn’t cause a major shift afterward. For homebuyers, this means mortgage rates didn’t see a big move today, but markets remain sensitive to any signs of economic strength or weakness.

With the government shutdown in effect, many of the usual economic reports that investors and markets watch are not being released. For today, that means no Jobless Claims report, which normally gives insight into the strength of the labor market. Another report, Factory Orders, was also paused though that one rarely has much influence on mortgage rates.

With less data available, markets don’t have the usual guidance and may drift based on headlines or global developments rather than clear economic signals. That can sometimes create a quieter environment, but it also means unexpected news could have a bigger impact.

Looking ahead, the ISM Services report is still scheduled for Friday. This report tracks activity in the services sector which makes up the bulk of the U.S. economy and could provide meaningful clues on economic strength. Stronger results may push rates higher, while weaker results could help bring rates down.

This morning’s ADP employment report came in much weaker than expected, showing job losses instead of the gains economists were forecasting. ADP reported a decline of 32,000 jobs compared to expectations for a 50,000 increase, and last month’s number was also revised lower.

While the ADP report isn’t as influential as the official monthly jobs report, it still provides insight into the health of the job market. And with the government shutdown now confirmed, this ADP release will be the only broad payroll data available for the week.

For mortgage rates, weaker job data often brings relief. When hiring slows, it signals a softer economy, which tends to push investors into safer assets like bonds. As bond prices rise, yields and mortgage rates move lower.

So, while this isn’t the same market-moving event as the official jobs report, it’s still meaningful and has helped rates start the day on a stronger note.

This morning brought in a round of weaker-than-expected economic data, and that gave bond markets and in turn, mortgage rates, some breathing room.

While headlines are still focused on the possibility of a government shutdown, the bigger story for mortgage shoppers is the flow of economic reports. A shutdown could delay important data releases like the monthly jobs report, but in the meantime, today’s numbers gave the market something to react to.

Key reports included:

• Chicago PMI (a measure of business activity) matched some of the lowest levels we’ve seen recently.
• Consumer Confidence labor differential (a gauge of how people feel about job availability) dropped to its weakest point of this cycle.
• Job openings and quits fell near multi-year lows, pointing to a softer job market.

For mortgage rates, this weaker economic data is actually positive news. Here’s why: when the economy shows signs of slowing, investors often move money into safer assets like bonds. As demand for bonds goes up, their prices rise, which pushes yields — and mortgage rates — lower.

So while it’s not a dramatic shift, today’s softer data has given rates a modest improvement compared to where they started the day.