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Daily updates on interest rates
Interest Rate
6.750%
APR
7.266%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
18 Apr 2024
Interest Rate
7.875%
APR
7.980%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.750%
APR
7.816%
Points
0.435
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.000%
APR
7.115%
Points
0.875
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.750%
APR
7.061%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.500%
APR
6.845%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.500%
APR
6.859%
Points
1.077
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.125%
APR
7.905%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.125%
APR
7.226%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.750%
APR
6.963%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.000%
APR
7.190%
Points
0.954
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.250%
APR
7.390%
Points
0.964
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.750%
APR
6.899%
Points
0.731
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.875%
APR
7.060%
Points
0.875
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.875%
APR
7.036%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
5.875%
APR
6.212%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.3%
APR
0.424%
Points
7.4
Last Updated
12 Apr 2024
Interest Rate
6.375%
APR
6.590%
Points
0.947
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.625%
APR
7.436%
Points
0.875
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
8.250%
APR
8.442%
Points
2.073
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
7.250%
APR
7.777%
Points
0.826
Last Updated
02 May 2024
Interest Rate
6.625%
APR
7.535%
Points
1.000
Last Updated
02 May 2024
02 May 2024
Mortgage Rates Hold Steady as Bonds Make Modest Gains
For those keeping an eye on mortgage rates, today brought some modest to moderate gains (a gain in bond prices equals a drop in mortgage rates) in the bond market following a flurry of morning economic updates. Despite the lack of particularly exciting reports, it seems traders were leaning towards purchasing bonds, regardless of the data.
Yields remained stable in stronger territory leading up to the Federal Reserve announcement. While the announcement itself met expectations, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during the press conference were noteworthy. Although Powell didn’t express as much concern about inflation as recent data might warrant, the consensus suggests that rate cuts are unlikely in the near future. However, there’s a prevailing sentiment that the next move from the Fed is more likely to be a cut than a hike.
Markets also responded positively to Powell’s reassurance that the Fed remains committed to taking necessary actions based on economic data, without being swayed by political considerations. This clarity provided some reassurance to those monitoring mortgage rates amidst economic uncertainty.
The unemployment report scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET on Friday good send rates higher or lower if there are any big surprises.
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01 May 2024
If you’re in the market for a new home, you might be wondering about the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision and how it could affect mortgage rates. This Wednesday’s announcement is expected to maintain the status quo on interest rates, consistent since July 2023.
However, there’s some buzz among savvy traders regarding another crucial aspect: the possibility of the Fed scaling back its quantitative tightening (QT) program. This program involves the Fed selling off assets to reduce the money supply and potentially increase interest rates.
Here’s the scoop: During the pandemic-induced recession, the Fed purchased a substantial amount of government-backed bonds to bolster economic recovery. This move helped lower interest rates in sectors like housing and auto sales. But as inflation surged in mid-2022, the Fed began unwinding those bond holdings.
Currently, the Fed allows up to $60 billion in Treasuries to mature each month without replacement, aiming to reduce money circulation and control inflation. However, there are concerns about the effects of QT on liquidity and its broader economic consequences.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlighted these concerns, noting that we’ve never experienced QT on this scale before. The current pace of QT drains over $900 billion annually from the banking system, potentially leading to higher interest rates and tighter monetary conditions.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a desire to avoid a repeat of past issues, like the “repo crisis” in 2019, which saw a spike in overnight loan interest rates. Powell indicated that QT would be scaled back soon, with many officials expecting a reduction to $30 billion.
So, what does this mean for you as a homebuyer? If the Fed eases its tightening policy, it could have a positive impact on mortgage rates. A taper of the QT program is generally seen as bullish for riskier investments like stocks and bonds, potentially driving bond prices higher and interest rates lower.
As we approach May 1, keep an eye on developments in the bond market, as any changes in Fed policy could influence mortgage rates and the housing market as a whole.
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01 May 2024
This morning saw a flurry of economic updates and events, yet mortgage bonds remained resilient. Despite a slightly stronger ADP report, mortgage yields (interest rates) actually decreased slightly . It’s possible traders anticipated a stronger report or were focused on May’s market dynamics. The quarterly refunding details that followed had minimal impact, possibly even positive. Momentum held steady through the NYSE opening, with manufacturing PMI reports causing little stir. The upcoming ISM PMI release at 10 am might influence rates due to higher prices, but weaker job openings could offset the impact. With that, mortgage bonds show slight strength as we await the 2 pm Federal Reserve announcement that could have a bigger impact on rates.
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30 Apr 2024
April has been a brutal month for those concerned about mortgage rates. Today’s Employment Cost Index (ECI) release added another layer of uncertainty. ECI, which measures labor costs and compensation, wasn’t always a major market mover until recently, when Powell started highlighting its significance. While today’s reaction wasn’t as drastic as with other reports like CPI or NFP, it’s a reminder that inflationary pressures could impact mortgage rates in the near future. Mortgage bond prices are down, and the yield which moves in the opposite direction of prices is up (yield and rate are synonymous). As we’ve been saying; until we have a series of economic reports showing a definitive slow down in the economy rates aren’t going down. As of this morning rates are up slightly.
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29 Apr 2024
Thursday’s update on consumer spending was a bit of a surprise, showing higher numbers than experts anticipated. This raised concerns that Friday’s report on inflation might also be on the rise. While today’s figures did indeed exceed expectations in some areas, the crucial month-to-month core spending stayed roughly in line with predictions, though only because last month’s numbers were revised upward. In simpler terms, inflation remains above the target set by the Federal Reserve and is also higher than what the market had anticipated, but it’s not quite as dramatic as last week’s report implied, at least for March.
Today’s bond prices are up slightly, which translates into slightly lower rates. We’ll need a lot more consistent data showing lower inflation and a slowing economy to really see movement in rates so don’t expect this to be a major trend. Tuesday’s report on consumer confidence and Thursday’s jobless claims will be important to watch.
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27 Apr 2024
Inflation persisted at elevated levels throughout the previous month; nevertheless, consumer spending remained resilient among Americans.
The latest figures released by the Commerce Department indicate that the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, a pivotal metric closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, surged to 2.7% for the year ending in March. This figure surpassed economists’ projections of a 2.6% increase and exceeded the 2.5% recorded in February.
This measure is frequently watched by the FED as a gauge of inflation. Reports like this if they continue make the likelihood of FED rate cuts even more distant.
Monthly data revealed a consistent upward trend, with prices rising by 0.3%, mirroring the pace observed in February.
Ben Ayers, Senior Economist at Nationwide, underscored concerns regarding the prevailing inflationary trajectory. Despite a relative cooling from the peak levels experienced in 2022, the momentum did not sustain into 2024. While escalated fuel costs played a contributory role, the primary drivers behind inflationary pressures remain rooted in housing and service sectors, where price adjustments exhibit enduring resilience.
Ayers highlighted the protracted nature of these price escalations within service categories, signaling a more prolonged period of elevated inflationary pressures than initially anticipated, a sentiment shared by economists and central banking authorities alike.
Bottomline: Weak economic news such as reduced consumer spending, higher unemployment and lower wages are what will lead to reduced rates. We’re seeing none of that so don’t count on any significant rate drops anytime soon.
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10 Apr 2024
If you’re in the market to buy a home, you’ve likely come across the term “CPI” and heard how it can affect mortgage interest rates. But what exactly is CPI, and why does it matter to you as a homebuyer? Let’s break it down into simple terms.
CPI stands for the Consumer Price Index. Think of it as a thermometer measuring the health of the economy by tracking the cost of a basket of goods and services that typical consumers buy, such as groceries, clothes, and medical services. The CPI report, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows whether this basket’s cost has gone up or down, essentially measuring inflation or deflation.
The CPI is a crucial indicator for both the economy’s health and the direction of mortgage interest rates. Here’s why:
Mortgage rates don’t directly follow the CPI, but they are influenced by the actions the Federal Reserve takes in response to CPI data. Here’s how:
As a homebuyer, understanding CPI and its impact on mortgage rates can help you make informed decisions:
While CPI is just one of many factors affecting mortgage rates, it’s a critical one that provides valuable insights into economic trends. By understanding CPI, you can better anticipate changes in mortgage rates and plan your home purchase with more confidence. Remember, a well-informed homebuyer is a smart homebuyer.
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09 Apr 2024
Deciding Whether to Lock in Your Mortgage Rate? Here’s What You Need to Know
“Should I lock in my mortgage rate now or wait?” It’s the question on every homebuyer’s mind. While we all wish for a crystal ball to give us the answers, the truth is, there’s no one-size-fits-all solution. But, don’t worry, I’ve got some insights to help guide your decision. Float simply means you have not locked in your interest rate and the rate or the points will continue to fluctuate daily with the market. Locking means you have locked in the interest rate and points.
Be aware: Just because you have asked your lender to lock in the interest rate doesn’t mean you ‘ll be approved. Depending on your credit score, or numerous other factors, the final rate and points could vary. If you are denied approval for that loan program and you are approved for a different loan program that lock won’t be valid on the new program. In short, unless you have full loan approval just because you are locked, the final rate and points could change.
First Up: If You Want a Sure Thing…
If you’re looking for a straightforward answer, and you’d rather not gamble on what rates will do next, then locking in your rate is the way to go. It’s like choosing a fixed price for your gas for the next ten years, regardless of whether prices go up or down.
But, If You’re Feeling a Bit More Adventurous…
Accepting that no one has a crystal ball can be liberating. You might think experts have the inside scoop, but in reality, predicting market movements is as much a gamble for them as it is for you. Even though it might seem like there’s a method to the madness, market predictions have proven to be a hit or miss.
The Catch with Predictions
Because everyone consumes information differently, we tread lightly with our predictions. You’ll rarely see us lean too heavily one way without mentioning other possibilities. It’s not about telling you what will happen; it’s about giving you the knowledge to make your own informed decisions. Think of it as learning to fish instead of being given a fish.
Considering Locking Your Rate? Think About This…
Many folks lean towards waiting for rates to drop before they lock in, attracted by the potential savings. But, there’s a pattern among the pros: the more they understand the market, the more they tend to lock in rates early. This doesn’t mean one strategy is universally better; it’s about managing risk and personal preference.
When Floating Could Work in Your Favor
When It’s a Gamble to Float
Solid Reasons to Lock In
A Reality Check on Predicting the Future
Day-to-day, predicting mortgage rates is a gamble. Historical trends suggest that trying to outsmart the market often doesn’t end well. Remember, if it seems obvious to you, others have likely already acted on it. Keep in mind, that if you could predict rates you would make millions of dollars a year as a bond trader!
So, What’s Next?
If you’re tempted to test your theories without risking real money, go for it! Keep a record and see how you do over a few months. If you find a winning strategy, keep it to yourself and maybe consider a career in hedge funds. Otherwise, understand that it’s often a 50/50 chance, and make your lock or float decision with that in mind.
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09 Apr 2024
When you’re looking into getting a mortgage, you’ll likely come across the term APR, or Annual Percentage Rate. Think of APR as the true cost of borrowing money for your home, which usually ends up being more than just the interest rate your lender talks about.
Here’s the thing, though: calculating APR involves a mix of upfront costs and a bit of human guesswork. Because of this, it’s not a perfect measure. Just because one lender offers a slightly lower APR doesn’t automatically mean you’re getting a better deal.
Let’s dive into something called “prepaid finance charges” (PFCs). These are basically fees you pay upfront to get your mortgage, not for any actual service like homeowners insurance (which you’d pay for regardless of a mortgage). Whether it’s a fee for processing your loan or something else, these PFCs are a big part of figuring out your APR.
Whether a loan has a lot of these charges or just a few isn’t necessarily good or bad. Sometimes, lenders might offer you a higher interest rate to cover these fees, meaning you don’t pay them upfront but over the life of your loan instead. This choice boils down to paying more now or more later.
The reason APR is important is because lenders have to tell you what it is by law, aiming to show the real cost of your loan. Sounds helpful, right? Well, it’s a bit more complicated because lenders calculate APR in their own ways. While most follow similar methods, some might tweak the numbers to make their APR look more appealing. Some lenders might also play it safe with what they count as a PFC to avoid getting in trouble with regulators, which can make their APR seem higher even if the upfront costs are the same.
You might see a lower APR, but because it has a lot of upfront fees it could be a bad option for you if you plan to sell the home, or refinance, in a few years. That’s because the APR is calculated over the whole term of the loan, but not many people actually keep the home or the loan for thirty years!
When comparing APRs make sure you are comparing the same type of loan. Don’t compare the APR for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage against and APR for an adjustable rate mortgage.
So, here’s the takeaway: Don’t just take an APR at face value. To really see which mortgage offer is better, you’ll need to compare the nitty-gritty details of those upfront costs. It’s a bit of a hassle, but it’s the best way to make sure you’re truly getting the best deal on your mortgage.
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09 Apr 2024
You want the lowest payment on your mortgage, right? So what is a mortgage rate exactly and who determines it?
Here’s a simple way to understand it:
A mortgage is a loan that you promise to repay. And it’s secured by your house…so if you don’t pay it back the lender gets to take the house. That makes it a pretty safe loan for the lender. In the lending world, safe usually means a lower interest rate.
While you might get a small loan from a credit union and pay that credit union back directly, mortgages are usually pretty large (especially with house prices today) so most mortgages eventually get bundled together with other similar mortgages and big investors buy them. A bunch of mortgage loans pooled together is usually sold as a mortgage backed security.
That’s not super important for you to understand, except for one thing…the market determines the interest rates, not your loan officer, underwriter or even the president of the mortgage company.
In the past thirty years rates have been over 10% and as low as around 3%. But none of that matters, because the interest rate today is determined by the market.
The market is simply what investors are collectively willing to lend money at. Investors want the best risk adjusted return on their money. Investors can do lots of things with their money such as buy US government bonds, invest in mortgage backed securities, or lend money to companies (not to mention investing in stocks, etc). Since a US government bond is considered the safest, that usually has the lowest interest rate. A mortgage to someone with perfect credit and a big down payment would be safer than a mortgage to someone that had a recent bankruptcy and a small down payment. A loan to Apple would be safer than a loan to a small company that isn’t profitable.
Since mortgage rates are usually considered pretty safe, but not as safe as a US government bond, mortgage rates will usually be higher than than a US government bond, but track pretty closely.
Since a 30 year fixed rate mortgage usually ends up getting paid off in around 10 years, mortgage rates are usually pretty correlated to the 10 year US treasury notes.
The federal reserve doesn’t control mortgage rates, but since they control the federal funds rate essentially the prime rate they indirectly control mortgage rates, because those investors just want the best and safest return. If the Federal Reserve raises rates in other areas mortgage rates will usually follow up up0, or if teh Federal Reserve is lowering other rates then mortgage rates will usually trend down.
The biggest impact on mortgage rates is inflation. Each week different economic reports are released. These reports influence the Federal Reserve’s actions and ultimately teh Federal Reserve is trying to keep the economy growing at a moderate pace with a little bit, but not too much inflation. We have another article on inflation, but the bottom line is that high inflation equals higher rates. Low inflation means lower rates. Bad economic news is usually good for interest rates (careful what you wish for…a low mortgage rate won’t help much if you’re unemployed).
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