Today's Mortgage Interest Rate News

Mortgage rates are holding steady this morning after a slight overnight dip. With no major economic reports released today, the market is mostly in a “wait and see” mode ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve announcement.

The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark rate; that part is already baked into the market and unlikely to move mortgage rates much. What really matters today is how Fed Chair Jerome Powell communicates the outlook during his press conference and whether there’s any update on the Fed’s plan to slow or end its balance sheet reduction (known as “quantitative tightening”).

Even if the Fed signals an end to that program, it’s not expected to be a major game-changer for mortgage rates. The bigger drivers of long-term rate movement will come once the government shutdown ends and we start getting regular economic data again, especially reports on jobs, inflation, and housing.

For now, expect some short-term volatility around the 2:00–2:30 p.m. ET window, but no lasting momentum until the broader data picture returns.

Mortgage bonds are performing well this morning, even as Treasury yields see a slight uptick. The difference comes down to supply and demand: while the Treasury market is digesting roughly $183 billion in new government debt this week, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) aren’t directly affected by that added supply.

This means MBS, which helps determine mortgage rate movement, is holding up better than Treasuries. The upcoming Treasury auction results this afternoon could influence short-term market reactions, but overall, the bond market remains steady as traders position themselves ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next announcement.

For homebuyers, this stability is a good sign it suggests that mortgage rates are likely to remain calm in the short term, even with some market noise around government debt sales.

With the government shutdown limiting new economic data, the bond market has been relatively quiet lately. Treasury yields and mortgage rates have mostly been moving within a narrow range, holding steady as investors wait for the next major update from the Federal Reserve.

Last week’s inflation report (CPI) showed some progress, but it wasn’t strong enough to push rates lower. That helped confirm the current “floor” for Treasury yields, which tend to influence mortgage rates. The 10-year yield briefly dipped below 3.97% before bouncing back, suggesting that investors are hesitant to make big moves until they hear from the Fed.

The Fed is widely expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut this week. Since that move is already priced into the market, attention will turn to what the Fed says next. If the Fed signals a cautious or “hawkish” tone about future cuts, rates could hold steady or even tick higher. But if policymakers sound more confident about easing inflation and supporting the economy, it could give mortgage rates room to improve.

Bottom line:
The market is in wait-and-see mode as the Fed’s next announcement approaches. For homebuyers, that means mortgage rates may not change much in the short term—but the Fed’s tone this week could set the stage for where they go next.

Today’s inflation report (CPI) brought encouraging news for mortgage rates, though not without a few caveats.

The key figures came in lower than expected, which is generally a positive sign for bonds and mortgage rates. The “core” inflation reading (which excludes food and energy) rose 0.22% for the month compared to forecasts of 0.3%. The broader “headline” inflation number increased 0.3% instead of the expected 0.4%. On an annual basis, both measures are running at 3.0%, which is still above the Fed’s 2% goal but slightly cooler than expected.

That small drop in inflation was enough to give bonds a boost, something that typically helps mortgage rates hold steady or improve.

However, some details in the report suggest the Fed may not ease up too quickly. One key measure called “supercore” inflation, which excludes housing and looks at more stable price trends, actually rose slightly from the previous month. While it’s still much better than the spike we saw in July, it’s not low enough to convince the Fed that inflation is fully under control.

That’s likely why the bond market’s initial rally pulled back later in the day.

Bottom line:
The overall inflation trend is moving in the right direction, but the Fed will probably remain cautious. For homebuyers, this means mortgage rates could see modest improvements, but a larger drop may depend on further cooling in inflation over the next few months.

When it comes to mortgage rates, “good” is all relative, but compared to where things have been over the past two years, the market has been holding up well. Bond yields, which influence mortgage rates, have been trading in a fairly stable range centered around 4.34% on the 10-year Treasury.

This morning saw a very small uptick, just a few hundredths of a percent, but yields are still comfortably under 4.0%, which is a positive sign. There’s no major news behind the move; markets are simply taking a breather after several solid weeks of improvement. Rising oil prices might be adding a bit of pressure, but overall, the bond market remains stable.

For homebuyers, this means mortgage rates are staying relatively steady and could continue to do so unless bigger economic news shifts the outlook.

After several weeks of improvement, the bond market started the day a little weaker. This kind of pullback isn’t unusual; it often happens after an extended rally, similar to what we saw in mid-October.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which play a key role in determining mortgage rates, had reached their best levels in over a year as of yesterday. So, today’s slight decline is more like a breather than a reversal. Markets often take a step back to “consolidate” after big gains before finding their next direction.

For homebuyers, this means mortgage rates could tick slightly higher in the very short term, but the overall trend of gradual improvement remains intact.